Market Intelligence
The problem is not imperfect data. It is committing real money to a number somebody will ask you to justify. Market sizing, competitive intelligence and pricing scenarios, built to hold up when they ask.
Discuss a BriefRetail measurement panels do not cover the channels that carry most of the volume. Census baselines are a decade old. Import figures miss whatever crosses the border informally. Competitor volumes are not published, and where something is published it is rarely comparable with anything else.
The decision still has to be made, so somebody reads the sources anyway. It usually falls to whoever is closest to the deadline, using an approach nobody wrote down, which cannot be repeated next year or defended in front of a regulator.
Which one you are dealing with determines the method, and the method determines whether the number survives the first serious question asked of it.
Most volume moves through open markets, kiosks and informal trade. Panels built around modern retail measure a fraction of the market and report it as the whole.
Population, household and consumption baselines are often a decade old. Every projection built on them inherits the error and compounds it annually.
Nobody publishes it. It gets triangulated from capacity, imports, distribution footprint and pricing, and each of those routes gives a different answer.
The estimate cannot be reproduced next year, compared with last year, or explained to Finance, Legal or a regulator who asks how you arrived at it.
The Work
Strand One
Total and category level
A defensible estimate of industry size, built on a standardised method rather than a one-off reconstruction. The method is documented, so next year's number is comparable with this year's.
Strand Two
Players, share and movement
Who holds what, how they are moving, and what their pricing and distribution says about where they go next. Assembled from filings, trade data, distribution and field observation.
Strand Three
Commercial and regulatory
Modelled scenarios for price changes and excise regimes, showing the volume, revenue and profit consequence of each. Written to be read by Finance and Legal, not only by marketing.
Anyone can produce an estimate. What a board or a regulator asks is how you arrived at it, and whether the same approach produces a comparable number twelve months from now.
So the method is documented before the number is delivered. Every assumption is stated with the range it carries, every route to the estimate is shown, and the whole thing is written so your own team can run it again.
This is estimation work in difficult information environments. In markets with mature measurement, a subscription answers the question faster and for less.
Producing a market number is not difficult. Producing one a business will plan against, spend against, and defend when somebody senior pushes back is a different discipline, and it tends to be learned from the inside rather than from an agency seat.
Modupe spent five years there. He led market intelligence for a multinational FMCG business working in exactly those conditions, and built the standardised method his team used to size markets when the usual sources were missing. That method is what this service runs on.
It earned its place by overturning something. It contradicted what the business had believed about its own market for years, and the strategy changed once the numbers were in. The pricing and excise scenarios behind a three-year pricing roadmap came out of the same work.
"Producing a number is easy. Producing one you can still defend a year later is the job."
Practical Detail
Work is scoped to the question rather than sold as a fixed package. Most engagements open with a short conversation about what decision the number has to support, which settles how much precision is worth paying for.
On your data
We work from your internal sales, distribution and pricing data alongside public and trade sources. Commercial data stays with you. Nothing you share is reused, referenced or shown elsewhere, and a non-disclosure agreement is signed before anything is exchanged.
Strands
Industry sizing, competitive intelligence, pricing and excise scenarios
Markets
Emerging and frontier markets
Deliverable
A written estimate, the documented method behind it, and the scenarios modelled
You provide
Internal sales, distribution and pricing data, and access to your commercial team
Fee
Priced on enquiry, based on the markets and categories in scope
Which markets, which categories, and what decision rests on it. If a syndicated subscription would answer the question faster, we will say so.